This analysis really captures the 'stabilization not deterioration' narrative that UNH is pushing. The Q2 to Q3 tone shift is huge - from admiting operational mistakes to confidently endorsing 2026 consensus. However I'm skeptical about the 'margin over growth' strategy working smoothly. Loosing 1M MA members in a single year is massive, and it's gonna be interesting to see if competitors can absorb that capacity without their own MCR problems. The Optum VBC shrinkage is also worrying for the long-term thesis - isn't value-based care supposed to BE the future?
This analysis really captures the 'stabilization not deterioration' narrative that UNH is pushing. The Q2 to Q3 tone shift is huge - from admiting operational mistakes to confidently endorsing 2026 consensus. However I'm skeptical about the 'margin over growth' strategy working smoothly. Loosing 1M MA members in a single year is massive, and it's gonna be interesting to see if competitors can absorb that capacity without their own MCR problems. The Optum VBC shrinkage is also worrying for the long-term thesis - isn't value-based care supposed to BE the future?