This report is generated by The INFERENTIAL INVESTOR’S Earnings Analysis Report research workflow prompt available in the Professional Prompt Library here.
This is easily the most professional and thorogh earnings analysis I've seen on Substack. The quantitative comparison table at the top is brilliant - it makes the beat instantly clear without having to dig through the entire report. I really apreciate how you called out the adjusted EPS calculation with the EC fine and equity gains - most people just take the headline number and run with it. The MD&A comparison with the sentiment scoring from Q2 to Q3 is genius. The shift you identified from "broad AI optimism" to "concrete, large-scale metrics" (650M Gemini MAU, 7B tokens/min, $155B Cloud backlog) is exactly the inflection that the market needed to see to believe this isn't just vapor. Your point about Cloud putting pre-earnings concerns "thoroughly to rest" with 34% growth acceleration is spot on - that was the biggest overhang and they just demolished it. The only thing I'm struggling with is how to model the CapEx raise you highlighted ($85B to $91-93B). On one hand, it signals massive demand visibility. On the other hand, it's going to pressure 2025 FCF and the market will need to see the AI revenue ramp materialize to justify it. Do you have any thoughts on what a resonable AI revenue assumption would be for 2026-2027 to make those returns work out?
This is easily the most professional and thorogh earnings analysis I've seen on Substack. The quantitative comparison table at the top is brilliant - it makes the beat instantly clear without having to dig through the entire report. I really apreciate how you called out the adjusted EPS calculation with the EC fine and equity gains - most people just take the headline number and run with it. The MD&A comparison with the sentiment scoring from Q2 to Q3 is genius. The shift you identified from "broad AI optimism" to "concrete, large-scale metrics" (650M Gemini MAU, 7B tokens/min, $155B Cloud backlog) is exactly the inflection that the market needed to see to believe this isn't just vapor. Your point about Cloud putting pre-earnings concerns "thoroughly to rest" with 34% growth acceleration is spot on - that was the biggest overhang and they just demolished it. The only thing I'm struggling with is how to model the CapEx raise you highlighted ($85B to $91-93B). On one hand, it signals massive demand visibility. On the other hand, it's going to pressure 2025 FCF and the market will need to see the AI revenue ramp materialize to justify it. Do you have any thoughts on what a resonable AI revenue assumption would be for 2026-2027 to make those returns work out?