SSBs themselves actually FAR more lithium metal than LFP batteries per kWh. The gap is potentially as large as 0.15 kg per KWh for LFP moving to 1.0kg per kWh in a toyota sulfide style SSB. This is because theres the electrolyte ions (greater lithium ion density) and lithium metal anode (vs LFG graphite).
Factorial's FEST system uses a polymer-hybrid that is less lithium intense than Toyota's solution, but still greater than a convention battery.
So it will structurally increase Lithium demand over time with the demand curve controlling how fast. At the same time Sodium ion batteries are appearing for the low end use that will replace LFPs. This will partially but not totally offset the lithium demand increase coing from SSBs.
However, the demand volume from SSBs for that increased lithium wont really appear until late in the decade.
Not sure but Stellantis had take or pay volume requirements in their Nextstar JV with compensation payable if they went below. Given they have admitted to overestimating the pace of the "energy transition" and taken a huge write down on much reduced EV projections, it may just be that it was cheaper to write off a $980m invetment in Nextstar than pay for battery volumes they couldnt sell or compensation.
Of course that can be true at the same time they see SSBs on the horizon that makes the Nextstar future less certain.
I shouldve also mentioned that Stellantis is a partner for Factorial which would make them privvy to where Factorial is at - so this write down / sale does seem to support Factorial's progress. Why invest more under fixed capital requirements in a old battery technology?
The trouble is theres a lot of skepticism about Donut's claims. Donut claims 400Wh/kg energy density, 5 minute charging and 100,000 cycle life which many engineering people claim is not possible due to thermal and chemical limits. However, at CES 2026, they didn't display a functioning cell (reportedly only a 3D-printed plastic housing with nothing inside) which seems very strange. They also reportedly dont hold any patents. There seem to be a few red flags there.
Donut's deliveries are also possibly slipping. Verge had indicated its first batch of motorcycles with these batteries would ship in Q1 2026. As of early Feb these dates have slipped to late 2026
I’d have preferred a more balanced take. The SSB hype cycle has burnt everyone a few too many times to take vaporware announcements at face value. Maybe this time is different. But you’re not giving me a reason to think it’s different this time.
When partners outside the Toyota Group like Idemitsu Kosan start building the actual production lines ( Jan 2026) and journalists are shown the real product (end 2025) it’s time to take notice. That’s real money and product rather than just a PowerPoint slide as in the past.
People more knowledgeable than I am on this have pointed out that transferring the massive amount of electricity to fully recharge a car battery with a capacity to run for several hundred miles, within a few minutes, creates all kinds of problems at a pretty fundamental physics level.
I’m not even sure if a current-gen car charger could charge what amounts to two current-gen car batteries in 5 minutes each.
So, while I’m certainly hoping for the kind of battery technology that can achieve these (claimed) results, I remain skeptical.
No mention of sodium ion batteries, spreading in production and starting to be installed in cars, with grid storage to come. Toyota have been promising solid state batteries very soon for facades.
That's because sodium ion are really only a cost measure - they dont solve the pain points of EV ownership like SSB does and hence are likely a low end auto battery. Sodium ion batteries are being installed but are only about 150 Wh/kg energy density (<1/3 of SSB indicated specs). The more interesting development is Factorial's semi-solid state batteries already in B-sample validation with Mercedes and Stellantis as they get closer to the energy density to really change the game.
Even a basic analysis of the physics shows that some of the claims are ridiculous. Forget home charging, even a small location with 10 charging bays is going to need its own electrical substation capable of supplying thousands of homes. And what exactly are you going to plug in to the car? For a battery that big to charge in 10 minutes you will generate so much waste heat that any normal charging cable will melt. Copper cables 3 or 4 inches thick with a very aggressive liquid cooling system. And then you still have to control the heat in the battery itself; imagine somebody heating your battery from the inside with a dozen welding torches for 10 minutes. More active cooling, adding lots more weight, reducing range and adding cost. No, this is a fantasy. Any advance is going to be a small increment.
Actually less cooling required. See the Finnish govt lab testing data and video at Idonutbelieve.com. Battery typically rising to 60 degrees during charging (less than 10 minute time). All verified.
That’s a test on a tiny battery thousands of times smaller. The fast charging test didn’t even go beyond 80% capacity because they know that efficiency degrades significantly from that point. It’s a small scale lab test for marketing purposes not a serious product evaluation.
Batteries such as you describe don’t even exist in prototype, so there are no real tests. As I said before it simply isn’t possible without defying basic laws of physics. Any electrical engineer can tell you.
This line has been run for a long time. The same people keep trying to pick at small points to say its not possible. Toyota has demonstrated its batteries to government, Factorial has driven them on the road, Donut is presenting test after test done by a government lab and Verge motorcycles have indicated they are producing their latest bikes with them. Chang-an has prototype cars on the road with solid states in them as do 2 other Chinese companies. The fact is we’ll hear the same narrative until we have commercial launch of a model for consumers. However I’ll trust the mounting evidence from all these companies rather than “any electrical engineer can tell you”.
If you’re talking about Factorial in Massachusetts they don’t even work with Toyota. Toyota themselves have been promising a prototype since 2020 and not delivered. Most of these claims are hype by people who know nothing about the actual engineering. If you want to waste your own money on a fantasy go ahead, just don’t mislead others.
Let’s assume one of these long-range vehicles has a 150 kWH battery. Recharging that amount of energy would in just 5 minutes would require 1.8 megawatts. Battery charging isn’t 100% efficient, however. Adding 10% for efficiency losses brings the required peak power demand to almost 2 MW. The last Tesla Supercharger station I saw near me had a step down transformer rated only 1 MW, to feed 10 Supercharger ports. Charging big batteries this fast will therefore require a second battery at the charging station to supply huge peaks of power. The local utility isn’t going to update its distribution system. The implication of this is new infrastructure spending, which will increase fuel costs for EVs to levels exceeding that of ICE vehicles.
To put some numbers around it a typical lithium ion battery can lose about half its range under extreme cold ( -20 to -30°C.). A solid state battery of the type that Toyota is developing loses only about 20% of range with charging lithium. Iron batteries become very slow to charge whereas solid state retain fast charging.
'However, as Mercedes and Toyota introduce vehicles that charge as fast as filling a gas tank and last 40 years, Tesla risks losing its crown as the “tech leader.”'
There's no path to actually fulfilling either claim here, but that doesn't seem to stop anyone's cheerleading nowadays.
Literally not evidence. You're pointing to an extrapolation of certain controlled tests to claim a 40 year life… notwithstanding the fact that in your first article you claimed the CAR would be a 40 year device, not just the battery.
I understand there is a comprehension chasm between “engineer” and “guy cheerleading on substack” but this is too much.
That’s funny. With that perspective you’ll just have to wait 40 years for your definition of evidence. And the whole article is about the battery not the car which is pretty obvious.
What is the significance for rare earth minerals/smelting operations?
SSBs themselves actually FAR more lithium metal than LFP batteries per kWh. The gap is potentially as large as 0.15 kg per KWh for LFP moving to 1.0kg per kWh in a toyota sulfide style SSB. This is because theres the electrolyte ions (greater lithium ion density) and lithium metal anode (vs LFG graphite).
Factorial's FEST system uses a polymer-hybrid that is less lithium intense than Toyota's solution, but still greater than a convention battery.
So it will structurally increase Lithium demand over time with the demand curve controlling how fast. At the same time Sodium ion batteries are appearing for the low end use that will replace LFPs. This will partially but not totally offset the lithium demand increase coing from SSBs.
However, the demand volume from SSBs for that increased lithium wont really appear until late in the decade.
Is this why Stellantis has sold its stake in Nextstar in Windsor?
Not sure but Stellantis had take or pay volume requirements in their Nextstar JV with compensation payable if they went below. Given they have admitted to overestimating the pace of the "energy transition" and taken a huge write down on much reduced EV projections, it may just be that it was cheaper to write off a $980m invetment in Nextstar than pay for battery volumes they couldnt sell or compensation.
Of course that can be true at the same time they see SSBs on the horizon that makes the Nextstar future less certain.
And maybe the road to the “Ring of Fire” will open one day too late as well?
I shouldve also mentioned that Stellantis is a partner for Factorial which would make them privvy to where Factorial is at - so this write down / sale does seem to support Factorial's progress. Why invest more under fixed capital requirements in a old battery technology?
Donut claims equal or lower kWh cost to Li, with no rare earths? If their claims are true, it’s a seismic shift.
The trouble is theres a lot of skepticism about Donut's claims. Donut claims 400Wh/kg energy density, 5 minute charging and 100,000 cycle life which many engineering people claim is not possible due to thermal and chemical limits. However, at CES 2026, they didn't display a functioning cell (reportedly only a 3D-printed plastic housing with nothing inside) which seems very strange. They also reportedly dont hold any patents. There seem to be a few red flags there.
Donut's deliveries are also possibly slipping. Verge had indicated its first batch of motorcycles with these batteries would ship in Q1 2026. As of early Feb these dates have slipped to late 2026
I’d have preferred a more balanced take. The SSB hype cycle has burnt everyone a few too many times to take vaporware announcements at face value. Maybe this time is different. But you’re not giving me a reason to think it’s different this time.
When partners outside the Toyota Group like Idemitsu Kosan start building the actual production lines ( Jan 2026) and journalists are shown the real product (end 2025) it’s time to take notice. That’s real money and product rather than just a PowerPoint slide as in the past.
People more knowledgeable than I am on this have pointed out that transferring the massive amount of electricity to fully recharge a car battery with a capacity to run for several hundred miles, within a few minutes, creates all kinds of problems at a pretty fundamental physics level.
I’m not even sure if a current-gen car charger could charge what amounts to two current-gen car batteries in 5 minutes each.
So, while I’m certainly hoping for the kind of battery technology that can achieve these (claimed) results, I remain skeptical.
I think you are correct in so far as thats why so many self imposed deadlines over the last 15 years have slipped. But read the 2nd part of the series for detailed evidence pointing to the breakthroughs having been achieved and path to commercialization underway: https://open.substack.com/pub/inferentialinvestor/p/the-solid-state-battery-shift-part?r=6g703x&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
No mention of sodium ion batteries, spreading in production and starting to be installed in cars, with grid storage to come. Toyota have been promising solid state batteries very soon for facades.
That's because sodium ion are really only a cost measure - they dont solve the pain points of EV ownership like SSB does and hence are likely a low end auto battery. Sodium ion batteries are being installed but are only about 150 Wh/kg energy density (<1/3 of SSB indicated specs). The more interesting development is Factorial's semi-solid state batteries already in B-sample validation with Mercedes and Stellantis as they get closer to the energy density to really change the game.
Just wait a few more years. A few more years. A few more years. And a better car will come along
Even a basic analysis of the physics shows that some of the claims are ridiculous. Forget home charging, even a small location with 10 charging bays is going to need its own electrical substation capable of supplying thousands of homes. And what exactly are you going to plug in to the car? For a battery that big to charge in 10 minutes you will generate so much waste heat that any normal charging cable will melt. Copper cables 3 or 4 inches thick with a very aggressive liquid cooling system. And then you still have to control the heat in the battery itself; imagine somebody heating your battery from the inside with a dozen welding torches for 10 minutes. More active cooling, adding lots more weight, reducing range and adding cost. No, this is a fantasy. Any advance is going to be a small increment.
Actually less cooling required. See the Finnish govt lab testing data and video at Idonutbelieve.com. Battery typically rising to 60 degrees during charging (less than 10 minute time). All verified.
That’s a test on a tiny battery thousands of times smaller. The fast charging test didn’t even go beyond 80% capacity because they know that efficiency degrades significantly from that point. It’s a small scale lab test for marketing purposes not a serious product evaluation.
Batteries such as you describe don’t even exist in prototype, so there are no real tests. As I said before it simply isn’t possible without defying basic laws of physics. Any electrical engineer can tell you.
This line has been run for a long time. The same people keep trying to pick at small points to say its not possible. Toyota has demonstrated its batteries to government, Factorial has driven them on the road, Donut is presenting test after test done by a government lab and Verge motorcycles have indicated they are producing their latest bikes with them. Chang-an has prototype cars on the road with solid states in them as do 2 other Chinese companies. The fact is we’ll hear the same narrative until we have commercial launch of a model for consumers. However I’ll trust the mounting evidence from all these companies rather than “any electrical engineer can tell you”.
If you’re talking about Factorial in Massachusetts they don’t even work with Toyota. Toyota themselves have been promising a prototype since 2020 and not delivered. Most of these claims are hype by people who know nothing about the actual engineering. If you want to waste your own money on a fantasy go ahead, just don’t mislead others.
Let’s assume one of these long-range vehicles has a 150 kWH battery. Recharging that amount of energy would in just 5 minutes would require 1.8 megawatts. Battery charging isn’t 100% efficient, however. Adding 10% for efficiency losses brings the required peak power demand to almost 2 MW. The last Tesla Supercharger station I saw near me had a step down transformer rated only 1 MW, to feed 10 Supercharger ports. Charging big batteries this fast will therefore require a second battery at the charging station to supply huge peaks of power. The local utility isn’t going to update its distribution system. The implication of this is new infrastructure spending, which will increase fuel costs for EVs to levels exceeding that of ICE vehicles.
This was a very frustrating article, kept reading for some actual substantive discussion on the actual tech, but there is none..
What is the effect of cold weather on SSBs?
To put some numbers around it a typical lithium ion battery can lose about half its range under extreme cold ( -20 to -30°C.). A solid state battery of the type that Toyota is developing loses only about 20% of range with charging lithium. Iron batteries become very slow to charge whereas solid state retain fast charging.
They are far more stable under extreme cold weather conditions. Very little range loss.
.... where will the energy come from ?
will it influence silver price? 🌹
'However, as Mercedes and Toyota introduce vehicles that charge as fast as filling a gas tank and last 40 years, Tesla risks losing its crown as the “tech leader.”'
There's no path to actually fulfilling either claim here, but that doesn't seem to stop anyone's cheerleading nowadays.
Evidence here: https://open.substack.com/pub/inferentialinvestor/p/the-solid-state-battery-shift-part?r=6g703x&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
Literally not evidence. You're pointing to an extrapolation of certain controlled tests to claim a 40 year life… notwithstanding the fact that in your first article you claimed the CAR would be a 40 year device, not just the battery.
I understand there is a comprehension chasm between “engineer” and “guy cheerleading on substack” but this is too much.
That’s funny. With that perspective you’ll just have to wait 40 years for your definition of evidence. And the whole article is about the battery not the car which is pretty obvious.
Happy wth LFP BYD fir now. It's my e Mountain bike I'm really wanting ssb for.
....and my laptop so its battery doesn't die after 2 hours