Strong result with guidance ahead. Key risk to the stock is decelerating growth off a high base and increased pricing headwinds dragging on the multiple.
Really thorough breakdown of LLY's earnings dynamics. The tension between volume growth and pricing erosion is the key story here and you nailed it. What strikes me is how the multiple could compress even with solid fundamentals if the market gets spooked by decceleration off such a high base. The shift from supply constraints to demand creation is also an underrated narrative pivot. Ive been watching how competitors respond and LLY seems to be executing pretty well overall.
I agree but I'm also wary about LLY being a name poeple are positioning in for the oral Wegovy/Mounjaro approval spike. I get the feeling it will be sold hard with that revenue growth slowdown in the back of HFs minds. Its potentially a crowded trade (and this coming from a holder whos constantly reassessing position weight)
Really thorough breakdown of LLY's earnings dynamics. The tension between volume growth and pricing erosion is the key story here and you nailed it. What strikes me is how the multiple could compress even with solid fundamentals if the market gets spooked by decceleration off such a high base. The shift from supply constraints to demand creation is also an underrated narrative pivot. Ive been watching how competitors respond and LLY seems to be executing pretty well overall.
I agree but I'm also wary about LLY being a name poeple are positioning in for the oral Wegovy/Mounjaro approval spike. I get the feeling it will be sold hard with that revenue growth slowdown in the back of HFs minds. Its potentially a crowded trade (and this coming from a holder whos constantly reassessing position weight)