Competitive Intelligence Analysis
Last Updated: 19 Sep 2025
Objective:
Build a comprehensive understanding of the market a company operates it, its definition and structure, competitive intensity, growth rate and key drivers, main competitors including relative strengths and weaknesses, market share trends, and recent developments.
Explanation:
Competitive intelligence is one of the first and most important steps to truly understanding a stock. This analysis defines the market a company plays in and how its products and services stack up against rivals. By analyzing the market, sizing it, and pinpointing the basis of competition, you see exactly where the firm wins, where it’s vulnerable, and why. This prompt looks to compare company offerings on price, performance, distribution, interoperability, and switching costs so the investor can get a tangible handle on the market dynamics. It also surfaces concrete risks (share loss, regulation, supply constraints) and actionable opportunities (under-served segments, channel openings, pricing power). It synthesizes a measure of competitive intensity using HHI and Five Forces presents a clean competitor table and short profiles, TCO benchmarks, and dated catalysts and ends with clear implications and a watchlist. Use it to ground any investment thesis in competitive reality.
As always, be aware that models can make mistakes. At each step, examine the response and challenge information or conclusions that appear erroneous before proceeding to any subsequent steps. If in doubt use a second model with the same prompt to verify the information and generate challenge questions and answers (CoVe process) to correct interpretations of data.
Link to blog post explanation:
Preferred Model(s):
ChatGPT-5+
Important Execution Notes:
Add in the company name and stock code where indicated.
Optional: Under Inputs section, the user can add their own market identification for the company if they feel it is highly specific. Copy the same notation from the Company name line in the inputs and add market identifer within the quare brackets.
Sample Output:
Copy/Paste Prompt Set:
Important note: Subscribers can use this prompt set for their own analysis. However, the prompt is copyrighted by The Inferential Investor, paywalled, and must not be shared without permission.
Role: You are a senior Competitive Intelligence (CI) analyst.
Task: Produce a rigorous, well-sourced competitive deep dive on the Company identified below in the inputs. Keep scope discipline and ensure every number is sourced and dated. Show formatted tables where possible.
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Inputs (complete before running)
* Company: \[COMPANY NAME])
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1) Executive Summary (≈1 page)
* 5–7 bullets on **market definition**, **current size and growth**, **basis of competition**, **competitive intensity rating**, **who is gaining/losing share and why**, and **key catalysts** in the next 6–12 months.
* One **“So what for \[Company]”** paragraph with the 3 most urgent implications.
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2) Market Definition, Size & Growth
2.1 Definition
* Define the **core market** and **adjacent segments** with clear inclusion/exclusion rules.
* Outline the **value chain** (inputs/suppliers → production/delivery → channels → end customers).
2.2 Size & Growth
* Establish **TAM / SAM / SOM** and methods used (prefer bottom-up; reconcile with top-down).
* Report **market size** for each of the last 3–5 years and compute **CAGR**: `CAGR = (Ending / Beginning)^(1/n) − 1`.
* Provide a **1–3 year outlook** (base / bull / bear) with drivers and headwinds.
2.3 Segmentation
* Break down by customer segment, product/service category, channel, and geography.
* Identify profit pools where available (segments with higher margins/switching costs).
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3) Basis of Competition & Advantage (Company Scores 0-5)
* Assess the competition factors and score **\[Company]** **(1–5)** on each, with evidence:
**Price**, **performance/quality**, **feature breadth**, **service/support**, **time-to-value**, **reliability/availability**, **brand/reputation**, **distribution/channel reach**, **compatibility/interoperability**, **switching costs/lock-in**, **scale economies**, **access to scarce inputs**, **IP/licenses**.
* *(Optional)* Map to **7 Powers** (scale, network, counter-positioning, switching costs, brand, cornered resource, process).
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4) Competitive Intensity Rating
* Calculate **HHI** (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index): `HHI = Σ(share_i^2)` (share in %). Interpret: **<1500** low, **1500–2500** moderate, **>2500** high concentration.
* Score **Porter Five Forces** **(1–5)**: supplier power, buyer power, threat of substitutes, threat of new entry, rivalry.
* Create an overall **Competitive Intensity Score (0–100)**:
`Intensity = 40% × (100 − HHI_normalized) + 60% × FiveForces_normalized` (explain assumptions and show sensitivity).
* Comment on **trajectory** (tightening or easing rivalry) and why.
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5) Major Competitors — Summary Table (schema)
```text
| Rank | Competitor | HQ / Regions | Primary Segments Served | Go-to-Market (Direct/Channel) | Pricing / Commercial Model | Est. Segment Revenue (LTM) | Est. Share (%) | YoY Growth vs Market YoY | Differentiators | Representative Customers/Use Cases | Recent Major News (≤24m) |
```
* Ensure **share = competitor segment revenue / total market size** for the same scope and currency.
* Optional columns: **margin proxy**, **unit revenue/contract value**, **retention/renewal rate**, **key partnerships**, **M\&A**.
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6) Short Profiles — Top N Competitors (½–1 page each)
1. **Overview:** Founded, ownership/listing, HQ, scale, core positioning.
2. **Offerings:** Main products/services and notable capabilities; roadmap themes.
3. **Operations & GTM:** Sales model, partner ecosystem, geographic/segment focus, delivery/fulfilment model.
4. **Financial Snapshot (market-relevant):** Latest annual/LTM revenue in scope, **YoY growth** vs **market growth**, indicative pricing/contract structures, unit-economics proxies if available.
5. **Recent Major News (≤24 months):** Launches, price changes, supply issues, regulatory actions, large wins/losses, M\&A, leadership changes, litigation (with dates).
6. **Positioning & Edge:** Where they win/lose and why; link to basis-of-competition factors.
7. **Risks & Watch-items:** Capacity constraints, channel conflict, regulatory exposure, reliance on single inputs, etc.
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8) Customer Perspective & Switching Costs
* Summarize **customer jobs-to-be-done**, buying criteria, and common **win/loss reasons**.
* Use evidence from **RFPs**, independent **reviews/surveys**, **case studies**, and **job postings** (skill demands).
* Estimate **switching cost level** (low/medium/high) by segment and key drivers.
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9) Ecosystem, Channels & Partnerships
* Identify key **partners**, **distributors/resellers**, and **co-marketing/co-sell** relationships.
* Assess **channel structure**, exclusivity, and revenue share norms.
* Note **critical dependencies** (inputs, platforms, logistics, data sources).
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10) Capabilities, Assets & IP
* Summarize **core capabilities**, production/delivery **capacity**, **supply chain/operations resilience**, **asset advantages**, and **patents/licenses** where relevant.
* Note applicable **regulatory/standards obligations** (no sector assumptions).
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12) Recent Developments & Catalysts (last 24 months)
* Dated bullets per player with **what happened** and **why it matters** (one-line implication).
* Tag each as **positive/neutral/negative** for **\[Company]**.
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13) Risks, Opportunities & Likely Moves
* **Top 5 risks** to \[Company] share over the next 12 months (probability × impact).
* **Top 5 opportunities** to gain share (feasibility and lead time).
* **Wargame** likely competitor moves and **\[Company]** counter-moves.
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14) Deliverables & Format
* **One-page summary** (bullets + scorecards).
* **Main report** (≤12 slides or 6–10 pages): sections 2–15 with exhibits.
* **Appendix:** source log, assumptions, raw tables (CSV), calculation notes.
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15) Sources & Evidence (minimum standards)
* Cite **every number** with a **source and date**. Prioritize official filings, audited data, investor materials, regulator databases, credible industry studies.
* For press/rumors: include **confidence rating** and corroboration status.
* Maintain a **discrepancy log** where sources conflict; state the chosen assumption and why.
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16) Quality Checks (before finalizing)
* **Scope alignment:** market definition, time windows, and currency are consistent across sections.
* **Math audit:** shares ≈ 100% (explain residual), HHI correct, CAGRs recompute.
* **Recency:** “recent developments” are within **24 months**, clearly dated.
* **Comparability:** growth rates and shares use the **same period and FX**.
* **Neutral tone:** separate **Observations** (facts, numbers, sources) from **Interpretations** (succinct reasoning).
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## Starter Exhibit Templates
**A) Competitor Summary Table (CSV schema)**
```csv
Rank,Competitor,HQ/Regions,Segments Served,Go-to-Market,Pricing/Commercial Model,Est. Segment Revenue (LTM, [Currency] m),Est. Share %,YoY Growth %,Market YoY %,Rel. Growth (pp),Differentiators,Representative Customers/Use Cases,Recent News (Date: Headline),Notes/Source
```
**B) Five Forces Scorecard (1–5)**
Suppliers: [ ], Buyers: [ ], Substitutes: [ ], New Entry: [ ], Rivalry: [ ] --> Intensity narrative (3–4 lines)
**C) Strategy Canvas Factors (tailor as needed)**
Price | Performance/Quality | Feature Breadth | Service/Support | Time-to-Value | Reliability/Availability | Compatibility | Brand | Channel Reach
(Score each 1–5 for [Company] and top rivals; plot value curves)
**D) HHI Calculation Table**
```text
| Competitor | Est. Share % | Share^2 | Source |
|------------|--------------|---------|--------|
| ... | | | |
Total HHI = Σ Share^2
```
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### Final Instruction
Deliver with clear labels **Observations** vs **Interpretations**. Avoid recommendations unless requested; focus on competitive facts, momentum, and implications for share dynamics.