Company History & Milestone Report
Last updated: 17 September 2025
Objective:
This prompt compiles and outputs a report synthesizing the history of the development of a company/stock over a default period (user specified) of 10 years. It researches and identifies major price sensitive events and creates a timeline linking them to the evolution of the share price.
Explanation:
Professional investors study a company’s history to see how management decisions, strategy shifts, and external shocks have actually translated into results and the share price, not just narrative. This prompt builds a source-verified timeline of price-sensitive events across the period you set. It pulls from investor relations, filings, press releases, reputable news, and cross-checks with neutral references. Each event is tied to the company’s LTM revenue, market capitalization, and share price at that time. It also maps the share price path, finds major inflection points, and links them to the nearest company or market drivers. You get annotated charts and structured tables that show what moved the stock and why. The result is an evidence-based profile of how the company really grows, where it has stumbled, and what that implies for risk, opportunity, and valuation today.
As always, be aware that models can make mistakes. At each step, examine the response and challenge information or conclusions that appear erroneous before proceeding to any subsequent steps. If in doubt use a second model with the same prompt to verify the information and generate challenge questions and answers (CoVe process) to correct interpretations of data.
Link to blog post explanation:
N/A
Preferred Model(s):
Use dual models simultaneously: Gemini 2.5+ and ChatGPT-5+. See execution notes and sample output for how they complement each other.
Important Execution Notes:
Insert the Ticker, Exchange and Company name where indicated
Look-back period defaults to 10 years but can be user specified.
Charts called for by the prompt can be hit or miss but future proof the prompt as charting capabilities are improving.
ChatGPT presents tables and charts in the query window, while Gemini does not
Gemini runs the prompt faster and presents more detailed explanations of single events while ChatGPT covers more granular events very concisely and presents a very useful timeline broken into types of events.
Sample Output:
Copy/Paste Prompt Set:
Important note: Subscribers can use this prompt set for their own analysis. However, the prompt is copyrighted by The Inferential Investor, paywalled, and must not be shared without permission.
Role: You are a senior equity analyst building a source-verified history of a listed company and mapping major, price-sensitive developments to share-price behavior.
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0) Inputs (collect first; use defaults if not given)
• Company: <TICKER, EXCHANGE, LEGAL NAME> (e.g., “AAPL, NASDAQ, Apple Inc.”)
• Look-back window: <YEARS> (default 10), measured back from today or a specified cut-off date.
• Reporting currency: Default to company reporting currency; provide USD translation for comparability (state FX source & date).
• Price frequency: <monthly | weekly> (default monthly, adjusted for splits/dividends).
• Benchmark index: Default to the company’s primary index (e.g., S&P 500, ASX 200).
• Event window for linking to price turns: ±30 trading days (adjust if necessary).
• Output formats desired: <Markdown report + CSV/Excel tables + annotated chart images>.
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1) Scope & Definitions
• Price-sensitive developments include (but aren’t limited to):
1. M&A (acquisitions, divestments, mergers, spin-offs)
2. Leadership changes (CEO, CFO, Chair)
3. Major product innovations/launches or discontinuations
4. Major customer wins/contracts, partnerships, distribution deals
5. Strategy shifts (business model, geographic focus, capital allocation)
6. Capital structure changes (IPOs, secondary offerings, large buybacks, special dividends, leverage/refi)
7. Material litigation/regulatory actions, investigations, fines
8. Guidance surprises, profit warnings, restatements
9. Major operational events (plant closures, outages, data breaches, recalls)
10. Exogenous shocks relevant to the stock (sector downgrades, macro/market events)
• Price series: Use adjusted close for total-return comparability where possible.
• Market cap at event date: Price × shares outstanding (event-date or nearest available; document assumptions).
• LTM revenue at event date: Rolling 12-month revenue using the nearest reported quarters/annuals; interpolate or use trailing four quarters; document the method.
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2) Sources (prioritize credibility, triangulate, and date every fact)
• Company: IR site (press releases, presentations), annual & interim reports (10-K/20-F, 10-Q/6-K), proxy statements, investor days, risk factors, MD&A, segment notes.
• Regulatory filings: SEC/EDGAR (or local equivalent: ASX, SEDAR+, Companies House, etc.).
• Official transcripts: Earnings calls/investor days (company site, reputable transcript providers).
• Neutral aggregators: Company page on Wikipedia (for scaffolding only; verify with primary sources).
• Reputable news: Major financial outlets with clear timestamps (e.g., Bloomberg, FT, WSJ, Reuters).
• Price & shares data: Exchange feeds, Refinitiv/Bloomberg/FactSet, or reputable free sources (document source).
Rule: For each event, cite at least one primary source (company/filing/regulator) and, where helpful, one reputable secondary source.
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3) Method (step-by-step)
1. Assemble Event Candidates
o Query IR/press release archives for the look-back window.
o Scan annual/interim reports (Business overview, Strategy, MD&A, Notes) for M&A, leadership, legal/regulatory, guidance changes.
o Search reputable news for milestone coverage and market-moving headlines.
o Use Wikipedia only to ensure coverage, then replace with verified sources.
2. Normalize & Deduplicate
o Collapse duplicate announcements (e.g., “announce/sign/close” of same deal). Keep announcement and completion dates as separate entries when both were market-moving.
o Tag each event with Category (see §1), Materiality (High/Medium/Low), Is guidance surprise? (Y/N), Exogenous? (Y/N).
3. Compute Event-Date Fundamentals
o LTM revenue at the event date: nearest reported quarters; if between quarters, state whether you use last reported LTM or forward proxy.
o Share price & market cap at close on event date (or next trading day if after hours).
o Optional: EV, EV/Revenue, EV/EBITDA (if contemporaneous figures available).
4. Build the Price Series
o Pull monthly (default) or weekly adjusted close for the full period.
o Pull benchmark index series for context.
o Note and adjust for splits, symbol changes, listings, spinoffs (document stub value treatments).
5. Identify Price Inflections
o Detect local turning points (peaks/troughs) using a simple rule (e.g., a local extremum vs. ±3–6 observations) and confirm with drawdown/recovery thresholds (e.g., ≥10% move).
o For each inflection, search the ±30 trading day window for company events and market/sector events.
o Assign the most plausible drivers with short rationale (“earnings miss + FY guide cut”, “CEO exit + restructuring,” “sector multiple rerate,” etc.).
o Where multiple events coincide, rank by expected earnings/cash-flow impact and news timing.
6. Score Event Impact (optional but recommended)
o Compute abnormal return around the event (e.g., [−3, +3] trading days vs. index beta or simple market-adjusted).
o Qualitatively rate impact: Strong/Moderate/Mild/None, noting confounders.
7. Quality Controls
o Citations per event with URLs, titles, and access dates.
o Consistency checks: Align dates, reconcile share counts vs. market cap, ensure LTM revenue logic is consistent across the timeline.
o Coverage test: No gap > 12 months without at least a status line in the timeline.
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4) Required Tables (schemas)
A) Master Timeline (chronological)
Date Event Title Category One-line Summary LTM Revenue (reporting ccy) Share Price (adj) Market Cap (reporting ccy) EV (opt) Primary Source (link) Secondary Source (link) Impact (qual/abnormal return) Notes
B) Price Inflections & Drivers
Inflection Date Type (Peak/Trough) Prior Move (% & length) Subsequent Move (% & length) Candidate Drivers (ranked) Company Events (±30d) Market/Sector Events (±30d) Best-fit Explanation (2–3 lines)
C) Leadership & Strategy Milestones (quick view)
Date Leader Change (CEO/CFO/Chair) Strategy/Capital Allocation Shift Narrative Impact (1–2 lines) Source
Deliver the tables in the report and also as CSV/Excel attachments.
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5) Charts (clear, legible, annotated)
1. Price Chart with Event Overlays
o X-axis: full look-back period; Y-axis: adjusted share price.
o Overlay top 10–15 most material events as callouts; keep labels concise.
o Add benchmark index (secondary scale or lower panel) to separate idiosyncratic from market moves.
2. Drawdown Chart (optional)
o Show peak-to-trough drawdowns to contextualize major cycles and align them to events.
3. Abnormal Return Barplot (optional)
o For the top events, show market-adjusted return over [−1,+1], [−3,+3], [−10,+10] windows.
Include a short chart guide explaining how to read the overlays and which events were selected.
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6) Narrative Sections (what to write)
6.1 Executive Summary (≤10 bullets)
• What shifted the company over the decade (or selected period)?
• 3–5 defining events and their price impact.
• The role of leadership and strategy phases.
• Organic vs. inorganic paths to growth.
• The most consequential risks that actually bit.
• One paragraph: “So what for the current thesis?”
6.2 Historical Timeline (concise narrative)
• Periodize the history into eras (e.g., “Foundational build-out,” “Scale-up via M&A,” “Platform monetization,” “Refocus & returns”).
• Summarize each era’s signature moves, LTM revenue progression, and capital allocation posture.
6.3 Price-Action Forensics
• Walk through major inflections with the matched catalysts.
• Distinguish company-specific vs. market/sector drivers.
• Note expectations resets (guidance, estimate revisions) and multiple re-ratings.
6.4 Capital Allocation & Balance Sheet
• Track buybacks, dividends, leverage, equity raises, and large debt actions.
• Comment on return on incremental invested capital where evidence allows.
6.5 Litigation/Regulatory Overhangs
• Summarize major cases/actions, timelines, and estimated financial exposure/settlements.
6.6 Leadership & Culture Signals
• CEO/CFO tenure, turnover, notable hires/board changes.
• Link leadership shifts to strategy changes and to subsequent stock behavior.
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7) Conclusion — How the Company Chooses to Grow & Evolve
• Growth mix: Organic innovation vs. acquisitions; which truly moved the needle on LTM revenue and value creation.
• Playbook over time: How strategy evolved across eras and why (technology curve, competition, regulation, financing conditions).
• Resilience: How the firm handled shocks (macro, legal, operational) and what that says about risk management.
• Current positioning: Given history, what is the probable next chapter (opportunity set, constraints, catalysts)?
• Implications for valuation: Which historical patterns inform the multiple, margin pathway, and reinvestment runway today.
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8) Output & Packaging
• Report: Clean markdown/PDF with all sections above.
• Data files:
o timeline.csv (Master Timeline)
o inflections.csv (Price Inflections)
o leadership_strategy.csv
• Charts: High-resolution PNG/SVG with readable labels.
• Appendix: Full source list with live links and access dates; methodology notes for LTM revenue, price adjustments, impact scoring.
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9) Working Rules & Assumptions (state explicitly in the report)
• Prices are adjusted; market cap reflects basic or diluted shares as specified (be consistent).
• LTM revenue computed from the four most recent reported quarters as of each event date (or nearest annual if quarterly unavailable).
• If data are missing or ambiguous, flag clearly and state the assumption used.
• Time-zone and after-hours effects: If an announcement posts after market close, link impact to the next trading day.
• Cite every number that isn’t trivially reproducible.
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10) Starter Prompts for Event Discovery (adapt per company/locale)
• site:<company_domain> (press release OR "investor relations" OR presentation) (acquisition OR divestment OR merger OR guidance OR partnership OR contract OR litigation OR settlement OR recall OR outage OR "data breach" OR restructuring)
• site:sec.gov <TICKER> 10-K OR 10-Q OR 8-K <YYYY..YYYY> (use local regulator for non-US)
• "<Company Name>" (CEO OR CFO) (appointed OR resigns OR steps down OR retirement)
• "<Company Name>" product launch OR new platform OR feature release <YYYY..YYYY>
• "<Company Name>" secondary offering OR buyback OR dividend OR leverage OR refinancing
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One-Line Instruction to Kick Off
Using the inputs in §0, execute the method in §3, deliver the tables in §4, the charts in §5, and the narratives in §6–7. Ensure every event has LTM revenue and market cap at the time, and annotate the price chart with the most material events. Conclude with a synthesis of how the company has chosen to grow and evolve.