What just happened to my stock?
Getting an explanation of why a stock just spiked or dropped
Last updated: 24 October 2025
Objective:
Explain short term share price movements in stocks with reference to both fundamental, technical and flow related factors to help decide whether its an opportunity or a risk.
Explanation:
This prompt provides traders and investors with a structured framework to diagnose the immediate drivers of a stock’s short-term price movement—typically over hours to days. By combining quantitative market data (price, volume, volatility) with qualitative catalysts (news, filings, analyst actions, or macro events), it identifies which developments most plausibly explain the stock’s deviation from prior expectations. The insight it delivers is not merely descriptive (i.e., “the stock fell 3%”) but inferential: it connects timing, sentiment, and information flow to price impact. This allows a trader to distinguish between transient reactions (e.g., options-related gamma squeezes) and information-driven repricing (e.g., revised earnings outlooks or regulatory risks), helping refine positioning or trade timing decisions.
The rationale for examining such diverse factors lies in how modern price formation is multi-causal and path-dependent. Fundamental news alters valuation expectations; broker revisions and corporate announcements influence institutional flow; and derivatives activity, particularly changes in implied volatility, open interest, and dealer gamma exposure, can amplify or suppress price swings independent of fundamentals. Meanwhile, liquidity, sector correlation, and macro data releases contribute cross-asset shocks that ripple through correlated names. By mapping these dynamics into a coherent short-term narrative, the prompt gives investors a probabilistic understanding of why a stock moved the way it did, grounding tactical trades in evidence rather than noise.
As always, be aware that models can make mistakes. At each step, examine the response and challenge information or conclusions that appear erroneous before proceeding to any subsequent steps. If in doubt use a second model with the same prompt to verify the information and generate challenge questions and answers (CoVe process) to correct interpretations of data.
Link to blog post explanation:
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Preferred Model(s):
ChatGPT 5 over Gemini. GPT’s advanced reasoning can provide an additional edge.
Important Execution Notes:
Insert the stock code where indicated
Set the lookback period (eg 1 or 2 trading days or as desired). Default is set to 1 trading day.
Run the prompt.
Remember you can follow up the initial analysis with further questions to understand concepts such as OpEx influences, extract crowded option expiry levels have the market interpret those for you, undertake a technical analysis study of the stock etc.
Sample Output:
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Copy/Paste Prompt Set:
Important note: Subscribers can use this prompt set for their own analysis. However, the prompt is copyrighted by The Inferential Investor, paywalled, and must not be shared without permission.