Generate a Pre-Earnings Analysis Report
Get yourself ready with all the issues and numbers before your stock reports
Last updated: 14 November 2025 (v2)
Objective:
Get ready for a stock to report by checking consensus, management guidance, recent consensus revisions and a summary of key issues the market will be laser focused on in the earnings report, presentations and call.
As a bonus, have your AI round up all the post earnings news and broker write-ups it can access in the 24 hours following the earnings call and summarize them for you so you can check your own conclusions.
Explanation:
Its never enough just to listen to an earnings call or read the presentation. The inferential investor needs to know what the market expected as well as the hot operational issues prior to the report landing, so they can make timely decisions once the new information lands.
This prompt is remarkably simple but in testing has proved incredibly powerful and quick, particularly for stocks that receive a lot of attention online. I use it for every stock I’m focused on to make sure I’m not missing nuances in the report.
See the sample pre-earnings analysis for Tesla - created 24 hours prior to its 3Q 2025 report.
As always, be aware that models can make mistakes. At each step, examine the response and challenge information or conclusions that appear erroneous before proceeding to any subsequent steps. If in doubt use a second model with the same prompt to verify the information and generate challenge questions and answers (CoVe process) to correct interpretations of data.
Link to blog post explanation:
N/A
Preferred Model(s):
ChatGPT-5+ or Gemini 2.5+
Important Execution Notes:
Simply enter the stock ticker where indicated.
Note that the prompt will update 24 hours after the reporting time with a summary of news and write-ups on the stock post earnings. Just check back into that chat for the update that will appear automatically.
Copy/Paste Prompt Set:
Important note: Subscribers can use this prompt set for their own analysis. However, the prompt is copyrighted by The Inferential Investor, paywalled, and must not be shared without permission.
ROLE
You are an equity analyst preparing an earnings preview note for [INSERT TICKER]
**CRITICAL EXECUTION RULES**
1. **No Prior Knowledge:** You **MUST NOT** use any pre-existing knowledge or internal memory. All data must be freshly retrieved.
2. **Real-Time Search:** You **MUST** conduct real-time web searches to find all relevant finance website write-ups, analyst reports, news articles discussing the upcoming earnings report for the specified company.
3. **Mandatory Citations:** You **MUST** provide a verifiable source (URL) for every piece of data, rating, price target, and quote presented.
4. **Data Verification procedures**: for each data point identified, ensure you strictly execute the Data Verification Procedures as detailed in the prompt section of the same name.
TASKS
1. Identify and summarize relevant consensus expectations (such as revenue and adjusted EPS) for the quarter and full year. Identify and report how these compare with current management guidance?
2. Identify the range of broker price targets and recommendations and any recent changes published ahead of the report with any key themes mentioned.
3. Identify whether consensus estimates have been rising or falling over the last 1 month.
4. What date and time will the company report?
5. What are the key issues the market will be looking for in the company’s next earnings report and presentation? Which issues are considered most important for the stock price at this time? What outcomes would likely be positive for the stock price and negative for the stock price?
6. 24 hours after the reporting date, update me with a summary of all news and broker write ups on the stock’s earnings and outlook, including broker recommendation changes and price targets.
DATA INTEGRITY VERIFICATION PROCEDURES
Objective: To ensure the accuracy of all specific, objective data points (e.g., statistics, financial figures, dates, technical specifications, direct quotes) before they are included in the final response.
Procedure:
For each critical data point that must be retrieved, execute the following loop:
[Identify Key Data]:
Isolate the specific, objective data point that requires verification.
(Example: If the user asks for “Stock's Q3 EPS consensus,” the key data point is the specific dollar/cent amount).
[Retrieve Primary Source]:
Conduct an initial search to find the primary data point from a high-authority source (e.g., official company report, major financial news outlet, government database).
Store this value as Source_A_Value.
Store the source as Source_A_Origin.
[Cross-Verification]:
Conduct at least two (2) additional, independent searches targeting the same data point.
Prioritize sources that are credible, recent, and independent of the primary source.
Store these values as Source_B_Value (from Source_B_Origin) and Source_C_Value (from Source_C_Origin).
[Analyze & Reconcile]:
Compare Source_A_Value, Source_B_Value, and Source_C_Value.
[Act based on Analysis]:
Case 1: Consensus (All sources substantially agree).
Action: Present the data point as verified. In your response, provide the verified data. If citations are requested, list the confirming sources.
Case 2: Discrepancy (Sources show significant disagreement).
Action: Do not “average” or pick one at random. You must report the discrepancy clearly.
Required Output Format: “A discrepancy was found for [Data Point]:
Source_A_Origin reports: Source_A_Value
Source_B_Origin reports: Source_B_Value
Source_C_Origin reports: Source_C_Value”
Case 3: Unverifiable (Data point cannot be found in multiple credible sources).
Action: Report that the specific data point could not be confidently verified from multiple credible sources.Sample Output:
TESLA PRE-EARNINGS ANALYSIS: Gemini 2.5
Date: 22 October 2025
Here is the pre-earnings analysis for Tesla (TSLA).
Earnings Date and Time
Date: Today, Wednesday, October 22, 2025.
Time: After the market closes.
Webcast: A live Q&A webcast with management is scheduled for 4:30 p.m. Central Time (5:30 p.m. Eastern Time).
Consensus Expectations vs. Management Guidance
1. Q3 2025 Consensus Estimates:
EPS (Earnings Per Share): Approximately $0.53
Revenue: Approximately $26.45 billion
2. Full-Year 2025 Consensus Estimates:
EPS: Estimates vary, ranging from $1.16 to $1.63.
Revenue: Approximately $93 billion.
3. Comparison with Management Guidance:
Management has not provided specific EPS or revenue guidance. Instead, their guidance is focused on:
Vehicle Deliveries: A target of ~1.8 million vehicles for the full year 2025.
Profitability: A focus on maintaining stable automotive gross margins.
The consensus EPS and revenue figures reflect the record 497,099 deliveries Tesla reported for Q3. However, the EPS estimates (down ~26% year-over-year) show significant market concern that these record deliveries were achieved through aggressive price cuts, severely compressing profit margins.
Consensus Estimate Trend (Last 30 Days)
Estimate revisions have been volatile. Several analysts (Zacks, Nasdaq) reported that the consensus EPS estimate for Q3 was revised downward by 1.5% to 1.7% over the past 30 days.
However, other data suggests a recent upward revision in the last week, likely as analysts adjusted models following the strong Q3 delivery numbers (497k) reported on October 2nd, which beat expectations.
Key Issues for the Earnings Report
The market will be focused on whether Tesla’s high valuation is justified by future growth (AI, FSD) or undermined by the weakening economics of its core auto business.
Automotive Gross Margin (ex-credits): This is the most critical metric. The market expects margins to be squeezed to the 16.5%-17.0% range due to price cuts. If the margin falls below this, it will likely be viewed negatively.
Demand Outlook for Q4 and 2026: Q3 deliveries were a record (497k), but this was heavily driven by a “pull-forward” effect in the U.S. as buyers rushed to claim the $7,500 federal EV tax credit before it expired on September 30. Investors need to hear management’s outlook for demand without that incentive.
AI and Robotaxi Timelines: Tesla’s high stock valuation is heavily dependent on its “moonshot” projects. The market will be listening for concrete metrics on FSD (Full Self-Driving) take rates, progress on the Robotaxi fleet, and realistic timelines for autonomy, rather than just ambitious goals.
Energy Division Growth: The energy business (Megapack and Powerwall) was a bright spot, deploying a record 12.5 GWh in Q3. Investors will look for commentary on the division’s margins, backlog, and ability to offset weakness in the auto sector.
Post Earnings Follow Up
Got it. I will schedule that follow-up. I’ll provide you with a summary of the news and broker write-ups on TSLA’s earnings 24 hours after the report.
Done. I’ll update you here on October 24th with the post-earnings summary. Ask me to edit or delete your scheduled action at any time.
Summarize all news and broker write-ups on TSLA’s Q3 2025 earnings report and outlook.2025-10-24 at 8:30 AM
You’ll get a notification when Gemini is ready