Bull & Bear Investment Case Workups
Examine the arguments for both the bull and bear cases and decompose them into core assumptions to measure against available evidence
Last updated: 26 September 2025
Objective:
Synthesize a logical bull land bear case from stock write-ups across the web to encapsulate the primary viewpoints on the stock. Break these down to critical components and examine those vs evidence to help judge on balance of probabilities which case is more likely.
Explanation:
When assessing any stock, a disciplined investor must weigh both the bull and bear cases, since markets reflect the tension between competing narratives rather than a single viewpoint. By explicitly breaking each case into its underlying “must-be-true conditions,” an investor can better evaluate which assumptions are credible, which are fragile, and how they compare in probability. This structured approach transforms debate into analysis, forcing clarity on what evidence would validate or falsify each side. The prompt provides a comprehensive framework to gather and synthesize current perspectives from across news, research, and social sources, then organizes them into a clear bull-versus-bear comparison with catalysts and probabilities, helping investors make balanced, evidence-anchored judgements.
As always, be aware that models can make mistakes. At each step, examine the response and challenge information or conclusions that appear erroneous before proceeding to any subsequent steps. If in doubt use a second model with the same prompt to verify the information and generate challenge questions and answers (CoVe process) to correct interpretations of data.
Link to blog post explanation:
N/A
Preferred Model(s):
ChatGPT-5+ or Gemini 2.5 PRO
Important Execution Notes:
Insert Ticker, Exchange and Company name in Inputs section
Set the time horizon from 6 -24 months for the bull and bear cases (default 12 mths) under inputs
Set the lookback period for case sources. under inputs (default 90 days)
Set the primary valuation metric for the stock (P/E, P/Sales, EV/EBITDA etc)
Optional: Add a peer set of tickers, for the prompt to scrape competitor comments that assist identifying conditions
Sample Output:
Copy/Paste Prompt Set:
Important note: Subscribers can use this prompt set for their own analysis. However, the prompt is copyrighted by The Inferential Investor, paywalled, and must not be shared without permission.